Complexity ...

Complex events are by definition unpredictable, so behaviourist? not. Period.
The question is not whether some things are more or less predictable (large or small error bars, or standard deviations), but whether there are some things (many things in fact) which are quite unpredictable, because they are "complex" in CAST (complex adaptive systems theory) terms, not in the everyday sense of "complex".
So what is 'complex' -(in CAST)?
It consists of:
  • Self-organising systems (see Conway's Life), which may also be
  • Self-reproducing (see computer viruses, biological viruses, and genes/memes/temes), which enjoy
  • Substantial degrees of freedom (see CCK08/09), and which are likely to produce
  • New, surprising, emergent events and properties, depending on the
  • Constraints in place in a particular context (see the comparison between CCK 08 and 09, and look at Twitter as a paradigm case study):
no de jure constraints, at least one Troll on site, and with an implicit 'good behaviour' constraint in place, which is not made explicit, and which has no de facto effective sanctions, as the implicit constraint of modelling good behaviour didn't cut any ice with the Troll, nor was the 'Do not feed the trolls' (DNFTT) rule known to everyone in CCK08, and it certainly wasnt applied.
vs. CCK09: de facto constraints (Troll self-excluded), and implicit constraints (modelled good beviour).
The question is not whether there were any constraints and sanctions in place in 08 or 09. There were constraints and sanctions in place in both. There are two, linked questions:
1. What type of constraints best provide conditions for emergence? In CAST terms, negative constraints, i.e. constraining what can NOT be done facilitates emergence, and, paradoxically, autonomy. On the other hand, positive constraints, e.g. "you must do 3 assignments on the following topics, in text only, with references, against predetermined outcomes", are most likely going to exclude emergence. [So, does that mean we have to redesign our curricula, completely 'upside down'? Yes, and the design of CCK08/09 goes part of the way in designing 'courses' upside down for the same reason.]
2. Constraints without sanctions are just hot air. So what sanctions should be in place, and i) how can you avoid imposing them, by offering alternatives (diversions, etc), and ii) if you have to impose them, how will you go about doing so, to ensure that they are swift and effective? - And this means there is a 'you' in the picture, (singular or plural) 'you' cant be air-brushed out. To put it plainly: 'freedom is conferrred -either by an authority, or by a consensus, but conferred it is'.
This is the simple (simplified) version. Life online is more interesting and complicated than that, and one of the problems with the DNFTT rule was that the Troll was quite interesting at times, so it was difficult to know whether to apply it.
And ...
Even under the most adverse conditions, emergence will out. (See Blackmore [the temes link above] on why evolution is a 'must').